Playing perfect basic strategy will eliminate the casino advantage of up to 6% and allow you to play an essentially even game, but to gain up to a 1.5% edge over the casino; you must learn how to count cards. In blackjack, the probability of winning the next hand depends on the type of cards remaining to be played. By keeping track of the cards as they are dealt, you can determine the chances of winning, if the chances are better than even, you raise the bet, and if the chances are even or less, you make a minimum bet. Not all cards are counted, only those that most directly affect the probability of winning, and in most card-counting systems, these are the high and low cards. The odds are in favor of the player when the decks remaining to be played contain a surplus of tens and aces, because more blackjacks and more standing hands of 17, 18, 19, and 20 will be dealt. Of course the dealer will also receive an equal share of these better hands, but he does not get paid 3 to 2 for blackjack; he cannot double down on 9, 10, or 11 with an improved chance of drawing a ten; he cannot split a pair when the odds are in his favor, and he must always hit his stiff hands of 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 with an increased chance of breaking.
To become a successful card counter and a winning blackjack player, you must develop three skills: • Learn the basic strategy so well that you can apply it without thinking. • Learn to count cards swiftly and accurately. • Learn to bet properly and manage your money.
This last skill "money management" is really more important than the others. Many blackjack players learn to become excellent card counters, only to fail because over-betting causes them to go broke. It never ceases to amaze me that an excellent counter will spend innumerable hours developing his skill and then walk into a casino with a $500 bankroll and make 25$ bets. Twenty losing hands and he is wiped out.
The card-counting system described below, called High-Low, is one of the best of the fifty-plus point-count systems available today, some selling for as much as $200. Simple to learn and effective to use, High-Low is played as follows:
• 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, "The Low Cards" count as +1 • 7, 8, 9, "The Neutral Cards" count as 0 • 10, J, Q, K, A "The High Cards" count as -1
Simply start at zero with a freshly shuffled shoe and count each card. For example, if the following cards are played: 2, 4, 5, 10, J, 7, 8, 6, 4, 5, 5, count as follows: +1 (the 2), +2 (the 4), +3 (the 5), +2 (the 10 counts as -1), +1 (the J), + 1 (the 7 counts as zero), +1 (the 8), +2 (the 6), +3 (the 4), +4 (the 5), +5 (the 5). When the count is plus, the deck is favorable because more low cards have been played; more high cards remain to be played, and in this situation the player should definitely increase the bet. Conversely, if the count is minus, more 10's, face cards, and aces have been played and the advantage is in favor of the casino.
Although the High-Low system is easy to learn, it does take considerable practice before it can be applied in a casino. Here is one exercise to help you prepare for actual play. Take a single deck of cards; turning one card over at a time, start with zero and keep a running count. When you finish, the deck total should be zero because the twenty high cards balance out the twenty low cards and, of course, the twelve neutral cards have no effect. When you can consistently do this in less than thirty seconds, you are ready to tackle the casinos.
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